Learning to Love Volatility

In a world that constantly throws big, unexpected events our way, we must learn to benefit from disorder, writes Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Several years before the financial crisis descended on us, I put forward the concept of "black swans": large events that are both unexpected and highly consequential. We never see black swans coming, but when they do arrive, they profoundly shape our world: Think of World War I, 9/11, the Internet, the rise of GoogleGOOG +2.02% .
In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long term. Still, through some mental bias, people think in hindsight that they "sort of" considered the possibility of such events; this gives them confidence in continuing to formulate predictions. But our tools for forecasting and risk measurement cannot begin to capture black swans. Indeed, our faith in these tools make it more likely that we will continue to take dangerous, uninformed risks.
Some made the mistake of thinking that I hoped to see us develop better methods for predicting black swans. Others asked if we should just give up and throw our hands in the air: If we could not measure the risks of potential blowups, what were we to do? The answer is simple: We should try to create institutions that won't fall apart when we encounter black swans—or that might even gain from these unexpected events.
Fragility is the quality of things that are vulnerable to volatility. Take the coffee cup on your desk: It wants peace and quiet because it incurs more harm than benefit from random events. The opposite of fragile, therefore, isn't robust or sturdy or resilient—things with these qualities are simply difficult to break. Read More

The Rise of the New Economy Movement

"One recent calculation is that 400 individuals at the top now own more wealth than the bottom 160 million."

Gar Alperovitz / 2012 What's the Real Truth?

The broad goal is democratized ownership of the economy for the “99 percent” in an ecologically sustainable and participatory community-building fashion. The name of the game is practical work in the here and now—and a hands-on process that is also informed by big picture theory and in-depth knowledge.
Thousands of real world projects — from solar-powered businesses to worker-owned cooperatives and state-owned banks — are underway across the country. Many are self-consciously understood as attempts to develop working prototypes in state and local “laboratories of democracy” that may be applied at regional and national scale when the right political moment occurs.
The movement includes young and old, “Occupy” people, student activists, and what one older participant describes as thousands of “people in their 60s from the ’60s” rolling up their sleeves to apply some of the lessons of an earlier movement.
Explosion of Energy
A powerful trend of hands-on activity includes a range of economic models that change both ownership and ecological outcomes. Co-ops, for instance, are very much on target—especially those which emphasize participation and green concerns. The Evergreen Cooperatives in a desperately poor, predominantly black neighborhood of Cleveland, Ohio are a leading example. They include a worker-owned solar installation and weatherization co-op; a state-of-the-art, industrial-scale commercial laundry in a LEED-Gold certified building that uses—and therefore has to heat—only around a third of the water of other laundries; and a soon-to-open large scale hydroponic greenhouse capable of producing three million head of lettuce and 300,000 pounds of herbs a year. Hospitals and universities in the area have agreed to use the co-ops’ services, and several cities—including Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Washington, DC and Amarillo, Texas are now exploring similar efforts. Read More

Jupiter Transit 2012: May 16th EST Jupiter Teaches New Ways to Wealth

Connecting More Dots to See the Invisible

Jen Jerndal
We are four months into the emblematic year 2012. Let’s look back to the build-up during 2011 and recall the following events and trends:
The Arab Spring revolutions spreading from Tunisia to Egypt, from Libya to Syria, and from Bahrain to Yemen;
The Spanish INDIGNADOS movement that spread to other countries in Europe and to the US.
Unprecedented riots and looting in London, Manchester and Birmingham and other places;
Luxury cars being burnt in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hamburg and other German cities;
The biggest protests ever in Israel, with nearly half a million people taking to the streets in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa, demanding social justice;
Students and teachers in Chile claiming free higher education in masssive anti-government demonstrations were met with massive confrontations by riot police;
A major grass-root protest campaign in India against corruption;
During labour riots in China, police and fire vehicles were set on fire;
The “Occupy Wall Street” movement in New York and across the United States has been spreading over the Atlantic into Europe, Asia and Oceania, with cascading consequences.
Riots in Greece against the “austerity measures” imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the former Goldman Sachs executives turned “saviours” of the Euro. Read More

Everything Changes—First Day of Spring, Dishware Patterns, Favorite Perfume

By Kathy Catrambone

March 21 is a nice enough day, as far as this year's 366 go.
It used to be known as the first day of spring. But due to some scientific mumbo jumbo, spring's official arrival date has changed. The Farmer’s Almanac explains that the earth’s elliptical orbit is changing its orientation, which causes the earth’s axis to constantly point in a different direction. Since the seasons are defined as beginning at strict 90-degree intervals, these positional changes affect the time the earth reaches each 90-degree location in its orbit around the sun. The pull of gravity from the other planets also affects the earth's orbit.
Bottom line: Spring 2012 arrived at 2:14 a.m. CDT March 20.
But you can still say March 21 is the first full day of spring.
It also is the birth date for a diverse group of famous people including Johann Sebastian Bach, Matthew (Ferris Bueller) Broderick, Florenz Ziegfeld, and, not-so-famously, me.
Last year’s March 21 was a cause of celebration: Dinner with my cousins at an upscale Italian restaurant in Chicago; an all-expenses-paid trip to New York, compliments of my Manhattan-dwelling brother; and tickets to the Paul McCartney concert at Wrigley Field from the rest of my family. All in all, that was a pretty spectacular way to mark my 60^th.
So today, I am 61. A milestone of import to no one other than myself. No fanfare today. No dinner. No trip to the Big Apple. No Paul McCartney. I am marking the day in a peculiar way: lamenting the loss of two of my favorite products, and being fearful about the future of a third. I guess in this fast-changing world, it is easy to outlive products. There's not much demand these days for manual typewriters, skate keys or transistor radios.
I have been collecting a Christmas dishware pattern since 1986. Over the years, I have accumulated 92 pieces—mugs, cake plates, round-, square-, rectangle- and oval-shaped serving pieces, water pitcher, cookie jar, matching salt-and-pepper shakers. It made a convenient Christmas gift idea for my family and friends. A couple of months ago, I received a chilling email announcing that the pattern will no longer be manufactured, urging fans to get the remaining pieces while the getting is good.
A favorite fragrance of mine was recently discontinued. It provided a pleasant smell at a reasonable price. It had been around only since 2002, so imagine my surprise when I tried to purchase some and was told it is no longer being made. I really liked it. Not heavy or musky or flowery or we-just-walked-in-the-rain-y. Now what am I to do? I may have return to the way I smelled before 2002.
But the news that really sent shivers down my spine: Hostess filed for bankruptcy in January. The future of Twinkies, Ho Hos and my favorite—CupCakes—is threatened. I have grown up with those two sweet little cakes, packaged just for me. I would save my 25-cent allowance to buy a package, enjoy it and not feel guilty that it was one thing I did not share with my four younger siblings.
Hostess, which survived the Great Depression, finds itself in trouble for reasons other companies now say they are in trouble: Its current cost structure "is not competitive, primarily due to legacy pension and medical benefit obligations and restrictive work rules." With all the Hostess CupCakes I have consumed, I think I could have helped the company’s cash flow. The company will continue to produce its goodies while it is in bankruptcy court.
What life-lesson have I learned today that will help me reach my 62nd March 21?
Carpe diem and carpe all the Hostess CupCakes that I can.

How the Fall of Greece Affects YOU -- No Matter Where You Are

What's in store in the Year of the Water Dragon?

IT’S the time of the year once again for our annual feng shui predictions. Some, of course, regard feng shui as mere “hocus-pocus” or a lapse into mass delusion, and others still laugh it off as mere amusement, and that’s OK. But for true believers, and they are legion, the stars and their placements definitely have some bearing on our lives, transforming this ancient Chinese art and science of geomancy into a multimillion-dollar industry. That’s why this story is a much-awaited event.

Last year Maritess Allen, geomancy expert and CEO of World of Feng Shui, the merchandising arm of her practice, said that 2011 would be a year of quarrelsome elements, competitive pressures in business, surprise attacks and assassinations, accidents associated with metal and road mishaps, chaotic weather patterns and fire-related disasters. She warned that international conflicts would escalate, while terrorism would cause worry and risks to travel. Meanwhile, the global economy would recover on a solid path as some animal signs promised to garner luck despite the appearance of three unlucky stars.

One has to ask if these stars were the countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, three stars that figure in the Flag of Europe that may symbolize the three countries that last year found themselves at the very precipice of ruin. Hopefully, feng shui will be good for everyone this year, especially in the realms of love and money. Read More

From the Edge of Dystopia to Enlightenment

by Phillip Jennings
For the world to recover from the financial crisis there must be a revolution on job creation equal to the environmental revolution that has percolated into the collective consciousness over the last twenty years. It has taken that long for the world to be convinced global warming is a real and deadly threat. People have been convinced not so much by the scientific evidence but by the evidence of their own eyes. The 2008 financial crisis and the continuing aftershocks have presented compelling proof that the economy is as sick as the planet. Read More

Benjamin Fulford on Coast to Coast, Monday, January 30th.:  Former Asia/Pacific Bureau Chief for Forbes Magazine, Benjamin Fulford, will address how most of the world's money is now controlled by Asia, which will bring a fundamental change in the balance of power, and a restructuring of the international banking system.

Occupy the Global Financial System: The 99% Activating the New

This article, posted at Benjamin’s blog, is about Local Exchange Trading Systems (LETS), new currencies, and more. The article does not name the writer, but seems to be related to “Intention One Earth Foundation” (http://www.intentiononeearth.com/).

The first historic trades within the new financial system have taken place!
The many global, independent trading networks all over the planet are rapidly connecting with each other, forming an infinitely expanding web of local and international commerce, exchange and trade.
People have woken up to the fact: for most of what we spend WE DO NOT NEED GOVERNMENT ISSUED MONEY. In fact, so many different groups have been abusing the money system, it can no longer fulfill its original purposes, which were:
a) as a medium of exchange
b) as a unit of account, and
c) as a store of value
It is the last of these that has led to systemic abuse and criminality, along with usury – the charging of interest. Money stopped merely facilitating things (a job it can do supremely well) and started to be seen as value in itself – which is one reason why so much is out of circulation! The ‘value’ is being hoarded, availability manipulated, markets distorted. No wonder the older religions all forbade usury – for they knew that the usurer and his schemes means that he always ends up owning everything, and tends to manipulate ruthlessly to that end.
There have been some interesting clues as to how this controlling and enslaving global finance system might be broken up. In the 1980’s, in Canada, a man called Michael Linton named the first Local Exchange Trading systems (LETS), from which a number were established. They then spread around the planet, but were largely ignored by anyone even remotely mainstream. The system, in brief, means that you have a local, non-interest bearing currency, and members of the system trade together for all sorts of goods and services: up to 70% of everything you need can be acquired this way in a properly run system with enough members. See definition at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_exchange_trading_system
Then there were time banks, e-currencies…and many other innovations. Over thirty years the expertise has spread to everywhere. For Time Bank description, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_banking
One of the most sophisticated, just coming into full operation, is Liverpool, England-based TGL: see: http://www.tgl.tv/
The first big clue to how these generic system types might be deployed was when Argentina got into trouble with the banksters, and threw out the IMF. Read More

As the Crisis Refuses to Calm, Scenarios of Euro Collapse Appear

by Bruce Crumley
Despite the distracting political drama over the UK’s outlier rejection at last week’s European Union agreement on fiscal and budgetary coordination, it’s now become clear that main objective of the collective effort–to ensure the survival of the euro, and more broadly bolster Europe’s economic outlook–has not been attained, and that the currency has won a short-term respite at best. So with the monetary chaos and European debt crisis still looming large and posing troubling questions, it would be unwise to ignore hypotheses now arising about what might happen if certain countries dropped out of the euro zone—or if the entire currency imploded. While that is still very much “what if” theorizing at this point, such a potential crisis is worth examining, if only to identify signs of what may await if things continue to deteriorate.

Tuesday’s New York Times continues its excellent coverage of Europe’s debt crisis by turning to Greece–the most weakened and vulnerable economy on the continent. It raises questions about the potential consequences of a return to the drachma. The picture isn’t pretty—involving bank runs, freezes on moving capital abroad, surging unemployment, rising prices and falling currency values, government default, isolation from international creditors and markets, and the sort of social and economic trauma and ruin associated with the Great Depression—or worse. “As the country descends into chaos,” the Times imagines, “the military seizes control of the government.” Read More

The Beginning of the Beginning

Before Occupy Wall Street began, Saint Germain shared his insights regarding the stumbling blocks of greed and fear in the MP3 lesson: Luminous Light, from the Twilight Series. A complimentary copy of this lesson is available for anyone in financial need. Please e-mail orders at iamamerica.com for the download link. "Many are not ready to hear this message, while others will hear it and awaken, even in the Twilight Hours." ~ Saint Germain

On November 17th, tens of thousands of people peacefully gathered in Foley Square in solidarity with #OWS. It was a powerful night of music, chant, and protest. We marched across the Brooklyn Bridge finding strength in our numbers and inspiration in our shared resolve to challenge the neoliberal economic system that controls our government and destroys our communities. As we marched a beautiful light appeared in downtown Manhattan.......Read More

Wolf: The people versus the police

We May Be Witnessing the First Large Global Conflict Where People Are Aligned by Consciousness and Not Nation State or Religion

"They're fighting a "corporatocracy" that has bought governments, created armed enforcers, engaged in systemic economic fraud, and plundered treasuries and ecosystems."

by Naomi Wolf
 
America 's politicians, it seems, have had their fill of democracy. Across the country, police, acting under orders from local officials, are breaking up protest encampments set up by supporters of the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement - sometimes with shocking and utterly gratuitous violence.

In the worst incident so far, hundreds of police, dressed in riot gear, surrounded Occupy Oakland's encampment and fired rubber bullets (which can be fatal), flash grenades and tear-gas canisters - with some officers taking aim directly at demonstrators. The Occupy Oakland Twitter feed read like a report from Cairo 's Tahrir Square : "they are surrounding us"; "hundreds and hundreds of police"; "there are armoured vehicles and Hummers". There were 170 arrests.

My own recent arrest, while obeying the terms of a permit and standing peacefully on a street in lower Manhattan , brought the reality of this crackdown close to home. America is waking up to what was built while it slept: Private companies have hired away its police (JPMorgan Chase gave $4.6m to the New York City Police Foundation); the federal Department of Homeland Security has given small municipal police forces military-grade weapons systems; citizens' rights to freedom of speech and assembly have been stealthily undermined by opaque permit requirements.

Suddenly, the United States looks like the rest of the furious, protesting, not-completely-free world. Indeed, most commentators have not fully grasped that a world war is occurring. But it is unlike any previous war in human history: for the first time, people around the world are not identifying and organising themselves along national or religious lines, but rather in terms of a global consciousness and demands for a peaceful life, a sustainable future, economic justice and basic democracy. Their enemy is a global "corporatocracy" that has purchased governments and legislatures, created its own armed enforcers, engaged in systemic economic fraud, and plundered treasuries and ecosystems.

Around the world, peaceful protesters are being demonised for being disruptive. But democracy is disruptive. Martin Luther King, Jr argued that peaceful disruption of "business as usual" is healthy, because it exposes buried injustice, which can then be addressed. Protesters ideally should dedicate themselves to disciplined, nonviolent disruption in this spirit - especially disruption of traffic. This serves to keep provocateurs at bay, while highlighting the unjust militarisation of the police response.

Moreover, protest movements do not succeed in hours or days; they typically involve sitting down or "occupying" areas for the long hauls. That is one reason why protesters should raise their own money and hire their own lawyers. The corporatocracy is terrified that citizens will reclaim the rule of law. In every country, protesters should field an army of attorneys.

Protesters should also make their own media, rather than relying on mainstream outlets to cover them. They should blog, tweet, write editorials and press releases, as well as log and document cases of police abuse (and the abusers).

There are, unfortunately, many documented cases of violent provocateurs infiltrating demonstrations in places like Toronto , Pittsburgh , London and Athens - people whom one Greek described to me as "known unknowns". Provocateurs, too, need to be photographed and logged, which is why it is important not to cover one's face while protesting.

Protesters in democracies should create email lists locally, combine the lists nationally and start registering voters. They should tell their representatives how many voters they have registered in each district - and they should organise to oust politicians who are brutal or repressive. And they should support those - as in Albany , New York , for instance, where police and the local prosecutor refused to crack down on protesters - who respect the rights to free speech and assembly. Read More

Project Syndicate